The Top 5 Things You Won't See From Trump In 2017

 Call me a skeptic, cynic, or disbeliever…or something worse if that makes you feel better.

But the more I think about what we should expect from the Trump White House in 2017, the more I’m convinced that there are 5 things we definitely shouldn’t anticipate seeing very often, and perhaps not at all.

Press Conferences

There seems to be some common wisdom that President Trump will do what candidate Trump more or less didn't: hold press conferences that allow reporters to ask him questions.

I doubt it.

Holding regular press conferences would mean the Trump administration would be validating the importance, role and value of the mainstream (or is it “the liberal”?) media. That would be abhorrent to many of those who supported him during the campaign.

Press conferences would also expose Trump to potentially embarrassing and politically damaging questions on a wide-range of issues that he’s probably not prepared to answer in any detail given his very limited policy experience and notorious aversion to preparing.

Most important, why should Trump hold press conferences when he can tweet with impunity and get his tweets covered as if they were responses to reporters’ questions?

A 2018 Budget

I first posted about this a month ago when I explained that there is a rumor – and it’s still just that – that Trump may not be planning to submit a fiscal 2018 budget to Congress this year.

There’s still no confirmation about what's in the works, but I’ve now heard from several others involved with the budget process (but not the transition team) that no Trump 2018 budget is a possibility.

Trump’s delay in nominating a director of the Office of Management and Budget was an indication last month that submitting a budget might not be a high priority. The OMB slot has now been filled, but another key budget post – chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers – remains open.

And it still makes political sense for Trump not to submit a budget. Congress will be swamped with doing 2 budget resolutions and reconciliation bills, fiscal 2017 and 2018 appropriations and an increase in or suspension of the federal debt limit; it doesn't need and may not have time to hold hearings on a Trump budget. Plus, Trump submitting a budget could put him on a collision course with the House and Senate on a variety of issues.

Honesty

Especially when it comes to any and everything having to do with the economy and federal budget, I’m expecting the Trump administration (and his allies in Congress) to use a steady series of what in polite company should be called “gimmicks” to get its agenda approved.

Expect everything from rosy economic scenarios that overstate GDP growth and understate inflation to assumed-but-not-specified future spending cuts. The goal will be to make proposals look much better than they really are and to make it appear that budget law requirements are being met.

Taking Blame For Anything

Trump’s economic plan can’t work without lots of gimmicks and new math. So what will Trump do if the economy doesn’t perform as well as his rosy economic scenario expects? Because it couldn’t possibly be because his policies were wrong, Trump will blame Obama and everyone else involved in the process and make it clear that the methodology they’re using is wrong.

For example, I’m expecting verbal assaults on the Bureau of Labor Statistics if it doesn’t report that unemployment has fallen as much as Trump expects, and on the Congressional Budget Office if it estimates that proposed tax cuts will increase the deficit by more than the White House thinks is correct.

I’m also anticipating (to the point where I will be shocked if it doesn’t happen) that Trump will blame the Federal Reserve and its interest rate hikes for slower-than-projected economic growth. And it will be Wall Street’s fault if financial markets don’t soar as promised.

Consistency

At least on the budget deficit and national debt, I'm anticipating a complete 180 degree reversal from the Republican policies of the past.

Trump will take a page out of George Orwell’s “Nineteen Eighty-Four” and insist the GOP has always believed in the deficits and debt that will occur from his policies.  He will also say that Republicans were never against the deficit and debt. To the contrary, they've really always been at war with growth-killing policies. The deficit has never really mattered.